Future of Europe: 5 scenarios

The five scenarios presented in the White Paper aims to steer a debate on the future of Europe. They offer a series of glimpses into the potential state of the Union by 2025 depending on the choices we will jointly make. The starting point for each scenario is that the 27 Member States move forward together as a Union. The five scenarios are illustrative in nature to provoke thinking. They are not detailed blueprints or policy prescriptions. Likewise, they deliberately make no mention of legal or institutional processes – the form will follow the function.

In this space you can vote on the five scenarios proposed by the Commission. The White Paper already acknowledges that none of the scenarios will be carried forward as described. Most likely, the way forward will be a “6th scenario” combining those elements that gather greater support from the scenarios proposed. For this reason, it is important to provide your thoughts, proposals and criticism of each scenario when you vote. If you disagree with all the proposed scenarios, do not hesitate to veto all of them!


  • The Europe of two speeds could be a tempting idea if led by a political approach that has at its core the wellbeing of Europes citizens. A positive example could convince and motivate the "slower" ones to join in. Actually, the "fast" countries look like being ruled by politics of austerity, which, as we could see since 2008, privatised profits and socialised losses. Taxpayers had to bear all the burdens, the financial elite took huge bonus checks home, worth billions, all this under the flag of "individual responsibility". This kind of speed will drive the EU project against the wall. 
    Nonetheless, the EU has to start to work on its future as a political project, meaning in first instance, strengthening the democratic legitimation of its institutions. Furthermore, the Euro will be untenable if the EU does not manage to have a joint social, taxation and economical policy.

  • In reading the comments I wonder if we understand what views there are about "wanting more".  As a UK citizen I was appalled at the decision to "leave" Europe - in reality an impossible desire because our geography and culture is a product of the European history.  I want more integration and a coherent Europe, and my dream is a world where we can all live together in harmony, so what is it that stops this?  I have tried throughout my life to practice what I seek, to understand other cultures, languages, societies and religions.  I have lived with aboriginals and many different countries where I have enjoyed the difference and similarities, and out of this found my own way to be myself and yet integrate with the culture I find myself in.  In this way I would say that wanting more integration and harmony, I have done what I can to encourage that in my own small way.  Imagine if what you wanted was similar and you quietly lived that way what the difference would be.  Surely this is an attractive way forward too?

  • This scenario may also bring along a stronger divide between countries- could lead to an increased disagreement between "east vs. west" or "north vs. south". And the ones who want to do more together set the "framework"- thus the ones who want to "get on the board" later have an already defined structure to face... 

  • i am not sure if this scenario really helps democratic processes - there might be the danger of right-wing tendencies trying to undermine the idea of a strong and open-minded europe (as we sadly already can see in some states ...)

    • Thank you Sylvia. Indeed, many share this very same concern!

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