Future of Europe: 5 scenarios

The five scenarios presented in the White Paper aims to steer a debate on the future of Europe. They offer a series of glimpses into the potential state of the Union by 2025 depending on the choices we will jointly make. The starting point for each scenario is that the 27 Member States move forward together as a Union. The five scenarios are illustrative in nature to provoke thinking. They are not detailed blueprints or policy prescriptions. Likewise, they deliberately make no mention of legal or institutional processes – the form will follow the function.

In this space you can vote on the five scenarios proposed by the Commission. The White Paper already acknowledges that none of the scenarios will be carried forward as described. Most likely, the way forward will be a “6th scenario” combining those elements that gather greater support from the scenarios proposed. For this reason, it is important to provide your thoughts, proposals and criticism of each scenario when you vote. If you disagree with all the proposed scenarios, do not hesitate to veto all of them!


  • Ultimately an improved variance of scenario 1. What prevents the actual EU to have a clearer division of responsibilities and helping EU citizens to better understand what is handled at EU 27, national and regional levels? Doing less more efficiently implies the same denial of the actual trust crisis of the EU that needs to be tackled with first priority. Trust re-established more and stronger joint decisions will be possible. It is not visible so far, how the European governments and the EU institutions intend to address this fundamental crisis of the credibility of the EU, it is not even visible, whether this crisis is acknowledged. In the contrary, the fight against right wing and anti-EU populism is fought with appeals for supporting and closing the ranks behind the actual EU and its policies. This creates a fatal antagonism where if one is pro EU one has to defend it as it is, or you one is against the EU with no alternative. Such an approach plays in the hands of the populists.

    We are all looking to France to understanding what kind of impulses we can expect from a country that completely wiped away its traditional parties and replaced them by new young forces. Will this create a drive of reforms that drags the EU with it, or will it be yet again a false flag operation with no impact on change as we have seen happen in Italy in the 80s?


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